How hard is it to produce a long-range weather forecast?
Evidently, it is not easy, as the following forecast posted by the Met Office for April to June on 23 March this year illustrates (you may need
to pinch yourself after reading it):
The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April May June as a whole, and also favours April being the driest of the 3 months.
As many of you will be aware, today the Met Office released its provisional rainfall figures for April-June, and rather than being
drier than average, it has been the wettest 3-month period on
record. Across the country double the average rainfall fell in June, making it
the wettest for the UK as a whole, and the second wettest for England, where it
was beaten by the disastrous year that seemed to have no summer - 2007.
It has been chilly too, with June proving to be the coolest
since 1991. Whereas it has been an excellent few months for slugs and ducks, it has not been good for tourism at home. The miserable run of weather will
doubtless have given a boost to travel firms selling a holiday in the sun, for it looks set to continue. On 20 June the Met Office issued a 3-month forecast for July-September 2012 which, to be frank, is worthless:
The probability that UK precipitation for July-August-September will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is also around 20% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
In other words, the Met Office is saying that there is a one in five chance that the amount of rainfall we receive will fall into one of five quintiles. Yes, that is true, but it does not constitute a forecast, being as it is a mere statement of raw probability. It tells us nothing, and as such is to all intents and purposes utterly useless. Given the embarrassingly wide of the mark Met Office
long-range weather outlook and the fact that many seem to swear by the
‘accuracy’ of independent weather prophet Piers Corbyn despite his frequent gaffes (the winter of 2011-2012 was supposed to be another extremely cold one
for us apparently, but as you will recall, it was warmer than average), I thought
that I’d have a crack at forecasting myself and see if I can do any worse. If Corbyn can make a living out of it, why can’t I? As to my
methodology, it is quite straightforward: a wild stab in the dark. Here follows
the forecast for the rest of this summer and autumn (I take no
responsibility for its accuracy, inaccuracy or sheer irrelevance, so make sure that you have some sunblock at the ready just in case my guesswork turns out to be somewhat wide of the mark).
July
Not overly good with plenty of rain. Slugs will continue to
thrive and it will be at least slightly warmer than June as it couldn’t get any
cooler. There will be marginally more sunshine for the same reason. A poor
month for gardeners, a good month for mildew and a delight for extreme campers.
Update 5 July: Piers Corbyn's July forecast has gone live, and it looks like he agrees with me when it comes to anticipating a forthcoming paradise for slugs at home. Well done Piers! Good to see you catching up with my random weather forecasting approach. In his own inimitable style Corbyn predicts 'A July of dramatic contrasts and likely record-level extremes. "Off-scale" rain, thunder-floods, giant hail, gales and tornado damage likely in NW Europe.' Now, you could never accuse him of overdramatising or using tabloid language could you? For some reason, use of a term such as "thunder-floods" brings to mind Native American linguistic usage. Maybe Piers is part Cherokee, part Nostradamus?
Update 5 July: Piers Corbyn's July forecast has gone live, and it looks like he agrees with me when it comes to anticipating a forthcoming paradise for slugs at home. Well done Piers! Good to see you catching up with my random weather forecasting approach. In his own inimitable style Corbyn predicts 'A July of dramatic contrasts and likely record-level extremes. "Off-scale" rain, thunder-floods, giant hail, gales and tornado damage likely in NW Europe.' Now, you could never accuse him of overdramatising or using tabloid language could you? For some reason, use of a term such as "thunder-floods" brings to mind Native American linguistic usage. Maybe Piers is part Cherokee, part Nostradamus?
August
Better than July and probably a little warmer and drier.
Slugs will still be doing well, and half of what is in your vegetable garden
will probably be stunted, rotten or both. Those potatoes that have survived
will be massive. If you live in the South, you will have plenty of green
tomatoes for making chutney. If you are a parent, your school-age children will
by now have driven you half insane and bankrupted you through repeated demands
to get involved in diverting activities that involve parting with large sums of cash.
September
The best month of the ‘summer’ with an extended dry spell
and an unseasonable heatwave of at least a week in duration. If you’re planning
a holiday in England, this will be the month during which to enjoy it. If
you’ve booked yourself a trip overseas, you’ll be cursing yourself for having
missed the good weather at home. Meanwhile, the national press suffers an
outbreak of predictable headlines incorporating the word ‘scorcher’ and the phrase ‘warmer
than’ many places which are known to be hot. New record low for Arctic sea ice reported.
October
Not a bad month. An Indian summer and dry overall. Warm. Piers
Corbyn issues the first version of his winter forecast intimating that it will
be “unusually cold” in line with his reissued prediction of an impending ice
age. Details relating to “an exceptionally cold surge of Arctic air” will be
made available to subscribers to his long-range forecasts for a very reasonable
fee equivalent to a pensioner’s winter fuel payment. First forecasts of a white Christmas appear in the press, together with bookies' odds.
November
A wet, windy and generally mild return to slug heaven. Eric
Olthwaite would be delighted. Given the surfeit of slugs this year, you will be left puzzling as to why hedgehog numbers are still declining.
Christmas
Mild, overcast and damp. The possibility of some sleet in
the Scottish Highlands. By this point, the resident Chinese population has decided to change the designation of 2012 from 'Year of the Dragon' to 'Year of the Slug'.
Don't laugh, as you'll probably see this post being quoted by the Daily Express in months to come as a genuine long-term forecast. The following may also be of interest: Winter 2012-2013 Weather Forecast: will Arctic Sea Ice Cover play a Role?
Don't laugh, as you'll probably see this post being quoted by the Daily Express in months to come as a genuine long-term forecast. The following may also be of interest: Winter 2012-2013 Weather Forecast: will Arctic Sea Ice Cover play a Role?
