Ice, Flood, Drought and Inflation

As much of England finally enjoys a taste of summer and a welcome respite from the rain and the cold, NASA satellite data reveal what appears to be unprecedented widespread melting of its ice cap. According to an article appearing on the BBC website today, whereas the most widespread melting previously recorded by satellite took place across 55% of the island's ice cap, on 12th July this year ice melt took place across 97% of its surface area. Melting was even recorded at Summit station, something that has not occurred since 1889.

Elsewhere in the Arctic, satellite data reveals that sea ice cover has been tracking below the record low levels of 2007. As of 23rd July, sea ice extent was tying with that of 2007. The melt season still has some way to go, as the ice reaches its annual minimum in September.

Presumably, the unusual position of the jet stream will have sent abnormally warm air over Greenland, just as it has brought unusual heat and drought to the United States and flooding to Britain and Kyushu. This year we seem to have been experiencing unusual patterns of weather resulting from the jet stream becoming locked into a particular position for extended periods of time. Quite why this has occurred is something of a moot point, with some climatologists suggesting that these atmospheric circulatory patterns are linked to a decline in temperature differentials between a rapidly warming Arctic and the Tropics. On the other hand, a minority hypothesise that these atmospheric patterns are linked to reduced solar activity, but the mechanism underpinning this has not been explained.

Whatever underlies the unusual meteorological events of 2012, these are likely to have a negative impact upon global food prices, owing for example to the collapse in production in the US Corn Belt. Increases in the price of foodstuffs could lead to an increase in social unrest in some countries, as occurred in Egypt in 2010-2011. Closer to home, a leap in food inflation will place increasing pressure on already squeezed budgets. Events in the natural realm thus seem set to compound the problems  of the human world in the months ahead.

September 2012 forecast: heatwave for England

How hard is it to produce a long-range weather forecast? Evidently, it is not easy, as the following forecast posted by the Met Office for April to June on 23 March this year illustrates (you may need to pinch yourself after reading it):

The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April May June as a whole, and also favours April being the driest of the 3 months.

As many of you will be aware, today the Met Office released its provisional rainfall figures for April-June, and rather than being drier than average, it has been the wettest 3-month period on record. Across the country double the average rainfall fell in June, making it the wettest for the UK as a whole, and the second wettest for England, where it was beaten by the disastrous year that seemed to have no summer - 2007.

It has been chilly too, with June proving to be the coolest since 1991. Whereas it has been an excellent few months for slugs and ducks, it has not been good for tourism at home. The miserable run of weather will doubtless have given a boost to travel firms selling a holiday in the sun, for it looks set to continue. On 20 June the Met Office issued a 3-month forecast for July-September 2012 which, to be frank, is worthless:

The probability that UK precipitation for July-August-September will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is also around 20% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

In other words, the Met Office is saying that there is a one in five chance that the amount of rainfall we receive will fall into one of five quintiles. Yes, that is true, but it does not constitute a forecast, being as it is a mere statement of raw probability. It tells us nothing, and as such is to all intents and purposes utterly useless. Given the embarrassingly wide of the mark Met Office long-range weather outlook and the fact that many seem to swear by the ‘accuracy’ of independent weather prophet Piers Corbyn despite his frequent gaffes (the winter of 2011-2012 was supposed to be another extremely cold one for us apparently, but as you will recall, it was warmer than average), I thought that I’d have a crack at forecasting myself and see if I can do any worse. If Corbyn can make a living out of it, why can’t I? As to my methodology, it is quite straightforward: a wild stab in the dark. Here follows the forecast for the rest of this summer and autumn (I take no responsibility for its accuracy, inaccuracy or sheer irrelevance, so make sure that you have some sunblock at the ready just in case my guesswork turns out to be somewhat wide of the mark).

July

Not overly good with plenty of rain. Slugs will continue to thrive and it will be at least slightly warmer than June as it couldn’t get any cooler. There will be marginally more sunshine for the same reason. A poor month for gardeners, a good month for mildew and a delight for extreme campers.
Update 5 July: Piers Corbyn's July forecast has gone live, and it looks like he agrees with me when it comes to anticipating a forthcoming paradise for slugs at home. Well done Piers! Good to see you catching up with my random weather forecasting approach. In his own inimitable style Corbyn predicts 'A July of dramatic contrasts and likely record-level extremes. "Off-scale" rain, thunder-floods, giant hail, gales and tornado damage likely in NW Europe.' Now, you could never accuse him of overdramatising or using tabloid language could you? For some reason, use of a term such as "thunder-floods" brings to mind Native American linguistic usage. Maybe Piers is part Cherokee, part Nostradamus?

August

Better than July and probably a little warmer and drier. Slugs will still be doing well, and half of what is in your vegetable garden will probably be stunted, rotten or both. Those potatoes that have survived will be massive. If you live in the South, you will have plenty of green tomatoes for making chutney. If you are a parent, your school-age children will by now have driven you half insane and bankrupted you through repeated demands to get involved in diverting activities that involve parting with large sums of cash.

September

The best month of the ‘summer’ with an extended dry spell and an unseasonable heatwave of at least a week in duration. If you’re planning a holiday in England, this will be the month during which to enjoy it. If you’ve booked yourself a trip overseas, you’ll be cursing yourself for having missed the good weather at home. Meanwhile, the national press suffers an outbreak of predictable headlines incorporating the word ‘scorcher’ and the phrase ‘warmer than’ many places which are known to be hot. New record low for Arctic sea ice reported.

October

Not a bad month. An Indian summer and dry overall. Warm. Piers Corbyn issues the first version of his winter forecast intimating that it will be “unusually cold” in line with his reissued prediction of an impending ice age. Details relating to “an exceptionally cold surge of Arctic air” will be made available to subscribers to his long-range forecasts for a very reasonable fee equivalent to a pensioner’s winter fuel payment. First forecasts of a white Christmas appear in the press, together with bookies' odds.

November

A wet, windy and generally mild return to slug heaven. Eric Olthwaite would be delighted. Given the surfeit of slugs this year, you will be left puzzling as to why hedgehog numbers are still declining.

Christmas

Mild, overcast and damp. The possibility of some sleet in the Scottish Highlands. By this point, the resident Chinese population has decided to change the designation of 2012 from 'Year of the Dragon' to 'Year of the Slug'.

Don't laugh, as you'll probably see this post being quoted by the Daily Express in months to come as a genuine long-term forecast. The following may also be of interest: Winter 2012-2013 Weather Forecast: will Arctic Sea Ice Cover play a Role?

2012: Year of the Slug?

Flood Warnings swamp West Yorkshire

Yesterday, it was the turn of the North to bear the brunt of June’s inclement weather, with up to 100mm of rain falling in northwest England bringing about flooding in Oldham and Wigan. As of 08:05 this morning, the Environment Agency had 49 flood alerts in place for Northeast England (encompassing Yorkshire) and 46 for its Northwest district. Most of the warnings for the Northeast were concentrated in West Yorkshire, with the River Calder alone possessing 29 flood alerts, the River Spen 4 and the Aire 3. Thus far, Calder Valley has thus experienced the worst of the flooding, with both Mytholmroyd and Todmorden hit. A number of properties in the centre of Brighouse also suffered from the effects of the rising waters in the early hours of this morning.

The BBC reports that rail services between Leeds and Manchester on the Calder Valley route have been suspended, and that services between Leeds and Wakefield have been affected. There appears to be a lull in the rain in the area currently, although more is forecast. The Met Office has issued severe weather warnings for the Northwest and parts of West and North Yorkshire until 9.00 Sunday morning. However, the forecast thereafter for the next few days suggests that the area could eventually enjoy some respite from the deluge. When will summer finally arrive? One week in May makes for a pretty miserable season.

In recent years, we seem to have veered between extended periods of rain, drought, cold and warmth, with the unusual position of the jet stream being blamed. Some theories attribute this to weakness in solar activity, others to a warming Arctic and a consequent decrease in temperature differentials in the Northern Hemisphere, expressed in a more sluggish jet stream prone to get stuck in a particular position for longer. More on these speculations can be viewed here.

Icelandic Volcano to Erupt?

Are you thinking of flying away from the UK’s winter weather to warm yourself for a week or two? If so, perhaps it could be time to think again.

Whereas last year’s eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano (yes, you do deserve a pat on the back if you can correctly pronounce its name) caused havoc with flights from the British Isles and across Europe, seismologists are warning that a series of earthquakes indicate that a far larger eruption could be in store in the near future.

Last year there was much speculation that Katla might well erupt following the stirrings from Eyjafjallajökull, for eruptions of the former have on at least three occasions in recorded history followed on from outpourings from the latter. This time though, it is not Katla that is threatening to disgorge ash and fiery magma, but the wonderfully named Bárdarbunga. The Daily Telegraph reports that:

The last recorded eruption of Bárdarbunga was in 1910, although volcanologists believe its last major eruption occurred in 1477 when it produced a large ash and pumice fallout. It also produced the largest known lava flow during the past 10,000 years on earth.

It is the second largest volcano on Iceland and is directly above the mantle plume of molten rock.

So, if it does go off we could be in for quite a display. Just watch out though should we be subject to another blocking high pressure system in the mid-Atlantic, for this could signal the return of northerlies or northwesterlies to the UK, dragging with them clouds of volcanic ash and once again closing down airspace over the British Isles.

The Icelandic Met Office has a rather unusual (from a British perspective) webpage which details earthquakes recorded over the previous 48 hour period. These are displayed on a map that also indicates the magnitude of the quakes and how many hours ago they occurred. It just serves to demonstrate what an incredibly dynamic island Iceland is.

Unsurprisingly, it would seem that some of those who are afflicted with Christian eschatological beliefs are (as they have done for the past 1900 or so years) seeing in this possible eruption and others around the globe portents of Armageddon, to which I would respond: no, it's just plate tectonics in action. Still, if you are of a sceptical cast of mind and would enjoy a little scoffing amusement at the lurid imaginings of such folk, why not treat yourself to a peek at the Bible Prophecy - Signs of the Times blog. The end is nigh! A popular refrain from 999, to 1660, 1666, 2000 and 2012, not counting the many, many other occasions when such beliefs have frothed to the surface and caused havoc and mayhem. Hey, look! Here comes an alien ship in the tail of Comet Hale-Bopp! Quick, better shuffle off this mortal coil and get beamed aboard! Here comes the Reverend Jim Jones with the orange juice: it's so yummy laced with cyanide! The lesson: many people are very, very gullible.

Bárdarbunga Caldera