Mubarak's Speech to the Egyptian People: a Plea for 7 Months in Office

Mubarak has addressed the Egyptian people this evening, claiming that "violence and looting" had been generated by political forces taking advantage of the recent protests. He claimed to have "been moved" by the pain experienced by Egyptians, and offered the people a choice between "stability" and "chaos" whilst acknowledging a "new reality". His new government would have new priorities which would be responsive to the demands of young people, and he claimed that he was opening a dialogue with all new political parties over constitutional reform in order "to restore calm".

However, he castigated some unnamed political forces for refusing to enter into dialogue and appealed to "the people" to recognise the difficult conditions under which he came to the presidency. He claimed that he "would not betray what you have entrusted to me" (i.e. "calm and stability") and stated that he would oversee a transition, ensuring that the country remains stable, claiming that he had not intended to stand again for the presidency.

Mubarak stated that he would devote his remaining months in office to ensuring a peaceful transition and  requested Parliament to modify Article 67 of the Constitution so that a limit would henceforth be defined for the presidential term. He also called upon the police to protect the freedom of the people, and for the judiciary to investigate all corruption charges as well as "who was behind the looting and the violence" of the recent protests.

What will the protesters make of this speech? Will they be satisfied to allow Mubarak to retain the reins of power until September this year? I doubt it. Furthermore, could not Mubarak's reference to prosecuting those whom he deemed to be "behind the looting and the violence" be used as a pretext for the arrest of many innocent protesters?

Hosni Mubarak to leave Office (but not yet)

Reports claim that Hosni Mubarak has announced that he will step down at the next election in September. What does this betoken for Egypt and its people? Are these reports true, or is this simply a political ruse on the part of this wily old dictator? Given the scale of today's demonstrations and the army's announcement that it will not fire on protesters, it seems that he has no option other than to leave office and that this statement is indeed genuine.

When he does eventually go, which one would assume ought to be soon, who will be left in charge? Will a caretaker administration allow sufficient time for a pluralist slate of candidates and political parties to contest the Egyptian elections, or will, as many have predicted, the Muslim Brotherhood simply step into the void and proffer itself as the Government of the people's choice? Egypt falling into the hands of Islamists would be very bad news for its people, particularly for its large Coptic minority, as well as for the wider world. Will Egypt choose the route of Eastern Europe in 1989, or of Iran in 1979? Hopefully the former, but that may be being overly optimistic.