With the results in from the three parliamentary
by-elections held in Corby, Manchester Central and Cardiff South and Penarth,
and the outcome of the first elections for Police and Crime Commissioners
(PCCs) filtering in from across England and Wales, a number of clear messages
are becoming apparent. The first of these relates to widespread voter apathy,
with turnout – particularly for the PCC elections – being remarkably low. So
unmotivated to visit the polls were electors, that the Corby by-election
turnout of 44.79%, which in itself would normally be seen as low, looked very
high compared to what was achieved elsewhere. In Cardiff South and Penarth,
turnout was a meagre 25.35%, whilst in Manchester Central, the corresponding
figure stood at 18.2%. The last of these figures was noteworthy for being the
lowest turnout in a parliamentary contest since the Second World War, but even
so, it seemed high when compared to the percentage turnout in the PCC
elections, which in many areas was below 15%.
Whereas these figures in themselves constitute an indictment
of the current state of our democracy and of the wasted £100 million allegedly
spent in introducing elected PCCs, they also contain some interesting messages
for our existing political parties. Although Ed Miliband’s Labour Party may be
trumpeting its relative success today, the clearest message for any party has
been delivered to the Liberal Democrats, and its content cannot be seen as
anything other than highly disagreeable for its membership; overall, the party
has been resoundingly crushed. In Corby, its share of the vote plunged from
14.5% in 2010 to just 4.96%, with its candidate Jill Hope losing her deposit.
The party was squarely beaten into fourth place by a robust performance from
the UKIP candidate Margot Parker who took 14.3% of the vote. As UKIP did not
stand a candidate in Corby in 2010 and the Conservative share of the vote went
down by 15.6% on this occasion, it seems clear that many traditional Tories
disaffected with the Cameroonian coalition switched their support to UKIP.
Other candidates fared so poorly as not to be worth a mention.
Although the Liberal Democrats managed to hang on to second
place in the Manchester Central constituency, their share of the vote collapsed
from 26.6% to 9.4%, whilst in Cardiff South and Penarth they narrowly held onto
third, place despite their corresponding share falling from 22.3% to 10.8%.
Whereas UKIP may have been ebullient about Corby, their shares in these two
by-elections were rather more modest, although they were both up from the last
General Election: 4.5% and 6.1% respectively. UKIP are therefore enjoying
something of a fillip in their fortunes, but the percentages that they are
polling fall way short of offering them the prospect of winning any Westminster
seats. However, from the perspective of the Conservative Party, a resurgent
UKIP that could potentially ‘rob’ them of anywhere between 10 and 15% of the
vote in any given constituency, might cause them to lose many more marginal
seats to Labour. Farage’s party could therefore be strong enough to damage the
Conservatives, but not robust enough to take any power for itself. This in
itself is indicative of two of UKIP’s primary weaknesses: its embrace of
Thatcherite globalism, which is justifiably unpopular with all but a minority
of the electorate, and the manner in which the party is run.
The experience of coalition government has clearly done the
Liberal Democrats massive damage. Their unpopularity should not be seen as the
straightforward consequence of Nick Clegg reneging over his promise regarding
university tuition fees, but as indicative of a wider discontent with Liberal
Democrat policies. Whilst I am no fan of our mainstream political parties, when
the Coalition Government formed I had a glimmer of hope – admittedly illusory –
that the fusion of the separate policy agendas of the Conservatives and Liberal
Democrats could result in something more positive than either alone would
impose. Like many people, from the Conservatives I hoped for a robust approach
to the EU which would have presented us with the option of withdrawal, as well
as an end to mass immigration and to the legislation that muzzles free speech
in the name of political correctness, whereas I wished for the Liberal
Democrats' approach to economics to temper the asset-stripping globalist
monetarism of the Conservatives.
This best of both worlds outcome however, was not to be, for
we ended up with an inversion of this scenario: the rigorous promotion of
Liberal Democrat policies in favour of the EU, mass immigration and political
correctness, combined with the ongoing ruinous globalist economics promoted by
Osborne. Who therefore, other than the stereotypical sandal-wearing bearded
liberals of yore, would have any positive regard for the Liberal Democrats
today? Personally, I know people who have supported the Liberal Democrats and
their predecessor parties for decades (none of whom wear sandals or sport
beards of any description), and yet they are disgusted with the party’s
attitude towards the EU, mass immigration and political correctness, as well as of
course, tuition fees. They would willingly support a party that put an end to
this ongoing undermining of our national sovereignty and social fabric, providing
of course that it was reasonable, in favour of genuine freedom of speech,
assembly and expression, and not some monstrous authoritarian entity harbouring
tacit agendas imbued with sinister motives. In this respect, they are like many
people today, who feel that they possess no real political choice and no
viable political party to vote for. A new mainstream anti-globalist party with
a libertarian streak is required, and the various alternatives currently being
hawked in the political market place do not fit the bill.
Returning to the question of the future electoral prospects
of the Liberal Democrats, what lies in store? One development that could have a
major bearing upon their prospects relates not to their current unpopularity in
England and Wales, but to the future status of Scotland, for it could, after
all, theoretically have left the Union by 2015. Scotland is home to 11 Liberal
Democrat MPs. Another major bailiwick for the party is the West Country, where
it has for many years provided the effective opposition to the Conservative
Party and has won an impressive number of seats. Quite how many of these it
might lose in 2015 however is moot, for the West Country is also one of the
strongest areas for UKIP, which given its current stronger showing could take
considerable numbers of votes from Conservative candidates in many seats where
they are challenging the Lib Dems, potentially allowing the latter to retain
their seats. It is a complicated picture, and we have another two and a half
years before the next General Election, so much could change in that time. Nonetheless,
whatever should happen, the future does not look bright for the Liberal
Democrats who could be replaced by UKIP as the nation’s third party. Then
again, what impact might a new political entity with the correct policy
formulation make? Time will tell.
Liberal Democrats: not flying high
