Well, time and tide wait for no man and I’ve only made it to outlining the BNP’s prospects in what I consider to be eight of its top ten seats rather than the whole lot. Still, an analysis of prospects in Morley in Outwood was also added to the mix. So, in which other seats should we expect a strong BNP showing?
Dagenham and Rainham
So, starting with the final two of my unfinished top ten we come to Dagenham and Rainham with odds from Paddypower.com of 33/1 on the BNP winning the seat. If it does, I’ll probably have a coronary, but we should see a healthy poll for the party here. It is a new constituency so there’s nothing to go on by way of direct comparison with 2005 and I have no time to trawl through ward-level stats to gain an indicator of possible BNP support. Still, this is where the BNP have chosen to field Michael Barnbrook, brother of BNP London Assembly member Richard. Labour BNP-baiter Jon Cruddas looks likely to be the favourite, but as this is East London the BNP should do pretty well. At an absolute minimum it should be looking at 5% of the vote as an absolute minimum, but 10-15% and a third place or above would in my opinion constitute a decent showing. UKIP are also contesting Dagenham and Rainham.
BNP campaigning in Stoke-on-Trent has according to Simon Darby's blog been going well, and besides anticipating a strong vote for Simon Darby himself in Stoke-on-Trent Central we should see fellow party member Michael Coleman increase the party’s share of the vote. The BNP stood here in 1997, 2001 and 2005, increasing their total number of votes and vote share on each occasion as follows: 1.2% (568); 3.8% (1,358) and 8.7% (3,305). A share of 12% or above would be a respectable result. It’s a solid Labour seat and is likely to remain in that party’s hands. As in Dagenham and Rainham, the BNP will also be vying with UKIP for the Eurosceptic nationalist vote.
The BNP have enjoyed rapid growth in the South Yorkshire borough of Barnsley in recent years, and it’ll be well worth watching their performance here. Unlike in many of West Yorkshire’s towns and cities, Barnsley has pretty much escaped Islamic colonisation, but the locals are all aware of the fate that has befallen other Yorkshire towns such as Keighley, Halifax and Dewsbury and are keen not to have that experience repeat itself on their patch. Barnsley Central was first contested by the BNP in 2005 when they won 4.9% (1,403 votes) of the poll, but in the local elections of 2008 they polled very strongly and took second and third place in a number of wards. Barnsley Central is comprised of 8 wards, but in 2008 only half of these held elections. Nonetheless, the results in these four point to a likely significant increase in both the overall number of votes captured by the BNP today as well as a greater vote share: Central – 621 (3rd place); Cudworth – 650 (2nd place); Monk Bretton – 668 (2nd place) and Royston – 392 (3rd place). This gives a total of 2,331 from half of the constituency’s wards.
A reasonable result for BNP candidate Ian Sutton would therefore be 4,000 votes and upwards with a 14%+ share of the vote. This is solid Labour territory, but is certainly a seat in which the BNP stand an excellent chance of muscling the Conservatives into fourth place, for the latter polled only a little over 13% at the last two parliamentary elections and less than 10% in 1997. The Liberal Democrats have been only marginally more popular than the Tories, so there is an outside chance that we could see Ian Sutton taking second place. UKIP are likely to come last in fifth place.